AMRO revises up South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 3.3%

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has increased its economic growth forecast for South Korea for 2026 to 3.3%, a revision from its earlier projection of 3.1%. The organization's quarterly update report also anticipates the Asian nation's economy to expand by 2.7% in 2027, an upward adjustment from the previous estimate of 2.2%.

AMRO's inflation outlook for South Korea indicates consumer prices will rise by 2.7% year-on-year in 2026, slightly higher than the prior forecast of 2.6%. For 2027, the inflation forecast was lowered to 2.3% from 2.4%.

Other international organizations have also recently updated their forecasts for South Korea. In September, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.2% from 2.6%, citing strong exports and corporate earnings driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had previously raised its 2026 forecast to 3.7%, attributing growth to robust exports and a gradual recovery in consumption.

AMRO also noted potential headwinds for the broader Asian region, including a possible slowdown in AI-related demand, rising energy and production costs due to Middle East tensions, and climate change impacts on food prices. Structural challenges such as fragmentation and aging populations were also highlighted.