Key facts
- Alaska LNG project estimated to cost $44.5 billion to $54.5 billion.
- Project cost is $2.2 billion to $2.7 billion per million metric tons of capacity.
- US Gulf Coast LNG projects typically cost $1 billion per mtpa or less.
- Alaska LNG would require an 800-mile pipeline from the North Slope, costing $13.2 billion to $16.9 billion.
- The project requires a treatment plant ($7.7 billion to $9.2 billion) and liquefaction terminal ($23.6 billion to $28.4 billion).
US President Donald Trump's initiative to attract $54 billion in South Korean investment for an Alaska LNG export project is drawing attention to its high estimated costs. Glenfarne Group, the lead developer, projects the 20 million-ton-a-year facility will cost between $44.5 billion and $54.5 billion, translating to roughly $2.2 billion to $2.7 billion per million metric tons of capacity. This figure significantly exceeds the approximately $1 billion per mtpa cost seen in recent US Gulf Coast LNG projects.
Analysts question the project's economic viability, noting that comparable US Gulf Coast projects like Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi Stage 3, Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG, and NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG have estimated costs closer to or below the $1 billion per mtpa threshold. The Alaska project's high cost is attributed to the necessity of an 800-mile pipeline from the North Slope, estimated at $13.2 billion to $16.9 billion, along with a treatment plant and liquefaction terminal.
Supporters argue that Alaska LNG's strategic location could offer faster delivery to key Asian markets like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, potentially lowering shipping costs and providing supply security. However, experts like Jason Feer of Poten & Partners remain skeptical, stating there is no current evidence that Asian buyers are willing to pay a premium for this security. Alex Munton of Rapidan Energy Group also expressed doubts about the project meeting commercial investment thresholds. Glenfarne Group CEO Brendan Duval, however, believes Trump's announcement will help secure the necessary capital for a final investment decision and construction.