Key facts
- Venezuela's oil exports fell 9% in September to 1.08 million barrels per day.
- Soaring tanker costs forced traders to demand steeper discounts and delayed cargoes.
- U.S. crude purchases increased to 629,000 bpd in September.
- Chevron shipped approximately 283,000 bpd in September, unchanged from August.
- Rystad Energy estimates Venezuelan production could reach 1.6 million bpd by 2028.
Venezuela's oil exports decreased by nearly 9% in September to 1.08 million barrels per day, primarily due to soaring tanker costs that are impacting profit margins and causing delays. Global trading houses, including Vitol and Trafigura, have been pressing state-owned PDVSA for better terms.
Despite the overall decline, shipments to the United States increased to 629,000 bpd from 553,000 bpd in August. However, India's purchases fell to 253,000 bpd from 297,000 bpd, and European purchases plunged to 86,000 bpd from 260,000 bpd.
Chevron maintained its shipments at approximately 283,000 bpd, similar to August levels. Trading firms collectively moved 637,000 bpd, an increase from the previous month's 597,000 bpd. Venezuela's production in August was around 1.2 million bpd, according to figures reported to OPEC.
Looking ahead, Rystad Energy estimates that Venezuelan production could rise to 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030. However, achieving this growth will require a significant increase in drilling rigs, from the two active rigs in August to an estimated 50 by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030.