Key facts
- A strong El Niño event could lead to nearly 49 million additional people facing acute food insecurity.
- The World Food Programme estimates that the total number of people in acute food insecurity could reach 274 million.
- Central America and Southern Africa are projected to be the most severely affected regions.
- Conflict and potential weather-related crop losses may exert upward pressure on global food prices.
- Funding cuts are hindering the WFP's ability to collect crucial data on the developing crisis.
- The WFP has implemented anticipatory action programs in 18 countries to assist those affected by extreme weather.
A powerful El Niño weather event could exacerbate global food insecurity, potentially pushing an additional 49 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year, according to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP). The agency's report indicates an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño, potentially the most severe since 1950.
El Niño, characterized by a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, disrupts global weather patterns, often leading to drought in Southern Africa, delayed monsoons in Asia, and erratic rainfall elsewhere. The WFP estimates that this event could increase the number of people facing acute food insecurity by 22%, bringing the total to 274 million.
Central America and Southern Africa are anticipated to be the most severely impacted regions, with food insecurity potentially rising by 83% and 75%, respectively. While global food markets are currently in a relatively strong position following good harvests, the WFP warns that ongoing conflict in the Middle East and potential weather-related crop losses could increase food prices.
Furthermore, funding cuts from U.S. and European donors are impeding the WFP's data collection efforts, making it more challenging to monitor the developing crisis. The agency has reduced its household surveys significantly for 2025 compared to 2024. Despite these challenges, the WFP has initiated anticipatory action programs in 18 countries, assisting over 1.3 million people with cash and other aid to prepare for extreme weather events.