$225 Million to $45 Billion. Then Nine Days to Liquidation

A 24-year-old with no Wall Street track record turned $225 million into $45 billion using roughly 4x leverage, then watched it unravel in nine days as AI stocks plunged and margin calls forced liquidation. Citadel stepped in and bought a roughly $16 billion portfolio at more than a 10% discount, and many of those same names surged 15 to 27% the very next day. Mike Butler's takeaway is not that the thesis was wrong. It was right. He simply could not withstand the variance long enough to collect. The S&P went from 7,000 to 6,400 to 7,700 in a single year, and it will fall 20% again at some point. Plus a look at why 8,100 by year end now sits inside the expected move, crude backwardation flattening from 4-5 points down to 1, and the CME FedWatch odds for September flipping toward no hike. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 $225M to $45B, then nine days 00:18 Citadel bought the book at a 10% discount 01:05 It comes down to how much variance you can withstand 01:47 If you cannot absorb a 20% selloff, you are over levered 02:15 The S&P will fall 20% again. Nobody knows when 03:15 This year alone: 7,000 to 6,400 to 7,400 04:42 Could this have been avoided? 05:39 Probability of touch is roughly double the ITM probability 06:45 Crude crushed to 75 and the backwardation flattening 07:34 Everything overlapping: unwind, earnings, and the rip 10:02 The one standard deviation upside is 8,700 #tastylive #leverage #liquidation #variance #tradesize #spx #crudeoil #fedwatch #mathcheck #tastytrade tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.