Stop Guessing Direction and Let the Market Hand You the Range.

Jim Schultz opens with the uncomfortable truth: nobody knows what the market does next, not him, not you, not anybody. So instead of picking a direction, he anchors to something objective. The expected move is roughly a one standard deviation range built from implied volatility and price, it contains the outcome around two thirds of the time, and it does not care about anyone's opinion or what a CEO said last night. He is explicit that it is not a prediction, just a range the market is currently pricing. From there he builds two neutral trades off the same reference points. The defined-risk version places the short strikes at the edges of that range with protective wings, and the maximum loss is simply the width less the credit collected. The undefined-risk version uses the same short strikes without the wings, which raises both the credit and the probability of profit but leaves the loss theoretically unlimited. Widen the strikes and probability climbs while the credit shrinks. This is education, not a recommendation. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Nobody knows what happens next 00:43 What the expected move actually is 01:32 Why it holds about two thirds of the time 02:07 Using a range to choose strikes 02:37 Focusing on neutral strategies 03:19 Finding it on the platform 04:08 Building the defined-risk version 04:57 How the max loss is calculated 05:46 The undefined-risk version 06:54 Widening strikes for probability #tastylive #optionstrading #expectedmove #ironcondor #shortstrangle #jimschultz #calculatedrisk #impliedvolatility #probability #optionseducation tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.