Someone Spent $3.4 Million on Calls Right Before This Earnings Report.

The options market is pricing an 11.5 percent earnings move in AppLovin. Over its last ten reports the stock's average one-day move has been 17.4 percent, and 21.5 percent after a week. It has finished higher the next day nine of those ten times, and higher a week later seven of ten. In other words, the market has consistently charged less than this stock has actually delivered, and someone just put roughly 3.4 million dollars into at-the-money calls with more than two weeks to run. Part of the mechanical explanation is the float. The company has bought back a large slice of its own shares, leaving comparatively little paper to absorb demand, which is how a single print can produce a gap of twenty, forty or more percent. The caution is that the two most recent reports broke the pattern, including one sharp drop and one pop that faded within a week. So the buyer does not need a heroic move, just a bigger one than the market is charging for, without the post-print fade. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 One of the season's best setups 00:23 What the street is looking for 00:54 Comparing it to a recent chip name 01:28 The trade that hit the tape 01:53 Why it is not a moonshot 02:14 Rich premium, and why it is paid 02:43 A look at the print record 03:04 The two reports that broke the run 03:30 Why the float matters so much 04:36 What the buyer actually needs #tastylive #optionsflow #applovin #earnings #signalvsnoise #optionstrading #impliedmove #callbuying #buybacks #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.