World to cross 1.5°C warming limit by 2030 if emissions continue at current rate

Key facts

• The world is projected to cross the 1.5°C warming limit around 2030 if current emission rates continue.
• Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025.
• The remaining carbon budget to stay below 1.5°C warming is 130 billion tonnes from the start of 2026.
• Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 56.8 billion tonnes in 2024.
• The Earth's energy imbalance has more than doubled in recent decades.
• Global sea levels reached a new record in 2025, with an accelerating rate of rise.

The world is rapidly approaching a critical climate threshold, with a new report indicating that the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement could be crossed around 2030 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace. Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025, and the remaining carbon budget to prevent exceeding this limit is now critically low.

The "Indicators of Global Climate Change" report, compiled by over 70 scientists, highlights that greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels. This has led to record concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, trapping more heat in the atmosphere.

The Earth's energy imbalance, the difference between incoming and outgoing heat, has more than doubled, meaning the planet is storing heat at an unprecedented rate. This is driving significant changes across the climate system, including rising sea levels, ocean warming, and increased marine heatwaves.

Sea levels have reached a new record, rising 23cm since 1901, and the rate of increase is accelerating. Marine heatwave days have more than tripled globally since the early 1990s. On land, extreme heat is intensifying, with average maximum temperatures over the last decade showing a substantial increase.

Scientists involved in the report also expressed concern over the threat to global datasets used for climate monitoring, citing funding cuts, such as the termination of a US air quality monitoring program, as creating dangerous gaps in crucial evidence.