Key facts
- Global temperatures are projected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within four years.
- Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025.
- The remaining global carbon budget is 130bn t/CO2 from the start of 2026.
- Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 56.8bn t/CO2e in 2024.
- El Nino conditions are likely to cause a temporary spike in global temperatures.
Global temperatures are projected to exceed the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris climate agreement within approximately four years, according to an international team of over 70 scientists.
Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025 compared to the 1850-1900 average. The report highlights that the rate of warming remains at an all-time high of around 0.27°C per decade, primarily due to record greenhouse gas levels. The remaining global carbon budget is estimated at 130 billion tonnes of CO2 from the start of 2026, which is expected to be exhausted in about three years at current emission rates.
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, largely from burning fossil fuels. However, the growth of these emissions is slowing, suggesting that policy and technological choices may be starting to influence the trend, according to Samantha Burgess of the EU Copernicus programme.
Concurrently, El Nino weather conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific, which typically leads to higher global temperatures. Forecasts suggest this El Nino event could be very strong, potentially causing a temporary spike in global temperatures and making the following year the hottest on record. The period 2023-2025 has already been identified as the three hottest years recorded, with an average temperature of 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels.