Key facts
- Vanderbilt researchers said the Polymarket user bet almost $200,000 on Ricketts being re-elected.
- The New York Times report said it was not clear whether the user had access to inside information.
- The user won more than $77,000 and also placed similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi, per the report.
- Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating; Kalshi declined comment.
- Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security said the circumstances are hard to write off as random and require further investigation.
Vanderbilt University researchers said a Polymarket user bet almost $200,000 on October 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected, and a New York Times/Siena poll released an hour later showed Ricketts in the lead, according to a report.
A New York Times report dated November 6 said it was not clear whether the user had access to inside information, and that the user won more than $77,000. The user also placed similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi, the report said.
"There's a series of circumstances here that it's hard to write it off as a random occurrence," said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security, adding that it "requires further investigation." Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined comment.
Cointelegraph reported in April that a US Army soldier had been charged after making more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market allegedly using nonpublic information tied to a US operation involving then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In a statement, the Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to the capture of Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January. Van Dyke allegedly used this information to buy "yes" shares in related Polymarket contracts, including "Maduro out by January 31" and "Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31," according to the DOJ.