Key facts
- A 60-day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran has reportedly been agreed upon and signed.
- The deal includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing oil to flow.
- Disagreements persist over the unfreezing of Iranian assets and future sanctions relief.
- The framework is set to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday.
- Fighting in Lebanon remains a significant risk to the fragility of the agreement.
The United States and Iran have reportedly reached an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. The deal, expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday, aims to de-escalate military confrontation and facilitate dialogue, though significant disagreements remain.
While mediators express optimism, both sides have accused each other of bad faith. Reports indicate that access to frozen Iranian assets is a major point of contention, with Iranian media claiming access to billions of dollars, a narrative the Trump administration has pushed back against, though acknowledging discussions are possible. President Trump stated that any future sanctions relief would be contingent on Iranian behavior rather than immediate.
The reopening of Hormuz is seen as an oil deal first and foremost, intended to restore Iran's oil exports, which were over a million barrels per day before the conflict. However, analysts estimate that energy flows may not return to 80% of pre-war levels until September, with full normalization taking longer. Shipping companies and insurers remain cautious, awaiting consistent commercial traffic and the completion of mine clearance operations.
A significant point of fragility is the situation in Lebanon. The US-Iran deal does not include Israel or Hezbollah, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asserted that Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon and other territories as long as necessary, indicating Tel Aviv is not bound by the agreement. This unresolved issue poses a risk to the broader stability of the ceasefire.