Key facts
- Labor argues universal early childhood education is a better way to address Australia's declining birthrate than a "baby bonus".
- Australia's intergenerational report forecasts more deaths than births within 40 years.
- The fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.34 children per woman by 2065-66.
- The government is exploring a universal childcare system, with a report due before the next election.
- Research by e61 thinktank found the previous baby bonus increased births by 6.5%.
Australia's Labor government has stated that investing in universal early childhood education and care is a more effective strategy for addressing the nation's declining birthrate than reintroducing a "baby bonus" payment. The government's focus is on making it easier for individuals to choose to have more children through expanded paid parental leave, superannuation settings, and improved access to affordable childcare.
The intergenerational report released on Monday projected that Australia will experience more deaths than births within 40 years, a demographic milestone already observed in countries like South Korea, Italy, Germany, and Japan. This marks the first time the triennial report has forecast such a trend. Lower fertility rates are identified as a primary driver of slower population growth, with Australia's fertility rate expected to fall to 1.34 children per woman by 2065-66, down from 1.5 in 2030-31. Fertility rates have been below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman for five decades, contributing to a projected population decrease of 1.7 million people and an increase in the median age by 1.7 years by 2065-66.
Treasury's report attributes the decline to a complex interplay of economic, social, and cultural factors, including increased access to contraception, longer periods spent in education and career development, delayed partnership formation, and later childbearing. Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged that fewer families having more than three children is part of the trend, but emphasized that decisions about family size are personal. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese aims to make universal childcare a key policy achievement, with Deloitte assisting in designing such a system, a report on which is anticipated before the next election. Assistant Minister for Productivity Andrew Leigh highlighted childcare as a government priority, citing evidence that it has the biggest impact on fertility rates.
However, opposition figures expressed differing views. Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie indicated an openness to economic incentives, such as a return to the Howard government's baby bonus, suggesting that delayed homeownership and family formation are key issues. Nationals leader Matt Canavan advocated for increased family support but questioned the efficacy of a simple cash payment like the baby bonus, suggesting solutions should encourage effort. Research by the e61 thinktank indicated that the baby bonus, introduced in 2004, led to a 6.5% increase in births, with more significant impacts on lower-income mothers and third children. Finance Minister Katy Gallagher reiterated that the government would not revisit the baby bonus, focusing instead on supporting families' choices.