Key facts
- Australia's seventh intergenerational report projects to 2066.
- Experts criticize the report for underplaying climate change's economic and social damage.
- The report states the effects of global heating are 'highly uncertain'.
- Sea level rise, hotter temperatures, and increased natural disasters are identified as risks.
- A disorderly net zero transition could hit the Australian economy by $2 trillion by 2050.
- Water scarcity and its impact on productivity are overlooked, according to experts.
Australia's seventh intergenerational report, which projects economic and social trends to the year 2066, has drawn sharp criticism from experts for downplaying the potential damage caused by the escalating climate crisis. The government's report suggests that the effects of global heating over the next four decades are "highly uncertain," citing the pace of the global energy transition as a primary source of unpredictability.
The report does acknowledge that sea level rise will significantly impact coastal areas, hotter temperatures could reduce worker productivity and harm agricultural yields, and frequent natural disasters pose a substantial economic risk. However, critics argue these assessments are insufficient.
Assoc Prof Ben Neville, deputy director of Melbourne Climate Futures at the University of Melbourne, stated that the report is "negligent in ignoring the economic damage that the changing climate already is and will increasingly bring." He pointed to treasury modeling that suggests a disorderly approach to the net zero transition could result in a cumulative $2 trillion hit to the economy by 2050, a scenario he believes is already unfolding due to geopolitical factors. Neville added that current modeling methods significantly underestimate economic impacts because they do not incorporate the complex, recognized impacts of climate change.
Professor Sarah Wheeler of Flinders University highlighted that the report overlooked water scarcity issues, noting that higher water variability will lead to increased flooding and drought, with significant ramifications for Australian productivity and wellbeing if not urgently addressed.
Climate activist Anjali Sharma questioned the report's relevance for young people, criticizing the government's failure to tackle climate change effectively. Conversely, Prof Frank Jotzo of the Australian National University noted that the report correctly identifies the economic advantages Australia stands to gain from transitioning to renewable energy and developing clean energy export industries.
Francesca Muskovic, executive director of policy for the Investor Group on Climate Change, urged the government to focus on aligning the growing electricity demand from datacenters with investment in new renewable energy sources, warning that insufficient clean energy supply could strain the grid and increase energy prices.