Key facts
- El Niño is expected to be the strongest in over 70 years and could last until February 2027.
- The phenomenon is linked to rising sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
- Droughts and wildfires are forecast for Southeast Asia, Central America, and northern South America.
- Increased rainfall and flooding are anticipated in eastern Africa, southern Brazil, and the southern US.
- China expects seven typhoons this year, while the Panama Canal will reduce vessel traffic due to lower rainfall.
- Early warning systems and medical assistance are being deployed to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather.
The world has entered a "danger zone of extreme weather" as El Niño intensifies, potentially becoming the strongest in over 70 years and lasting until at least February 2027, according to the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean, alters wind patterns and spreads warm water, releasing heat into the atmosphere. Recent months have seen sharp increases in sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, with surface temperatures more than 2C above average and sub-surface temperatures exceeding 8C above average in some areas. Forecasts suggest monthly sea surface temperatures could approach 4C above average, potentially making this the strongest El Niño since at least 1950.
This intensification is expected to cause significant global weather disruptions. Drier-than-usual conditions are forecast for Southeast Asia, Central America, and northern South America, increasing the risk of droughts and wildfires. Indonesia is already battling wildfires, and the Panama Canal will reduce vessel traffic by over 10% due to anticipated lower rainfall. Conversely, wetter-than-average weather is expected in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil, and the southern US, raising the chances of flooding.
China anticipates seven typhoons this year, and Australia is facing marine heatwaves and drought, particularly in its southern regions. Scientists are concerned that climate change could be exacerbating El Niño events, though this is not yet certain. Vulnerable groups and economies are at heightened risk from these extreme weather events, prompting strengthened early warning systems and pre-emptive measures.