Key facts
- Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with 54.8% of the vote.
- Burnham's victory positions him to challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership.
- Burnham will be sworn into Parliament next week, enabling him to formally challenge Starmer.
- A leadership challenger needs the support of 20% of Labour MPs (81 lawmakers).
- Potential pathways for Burnham include an uncontested handover or a formal leadership contest.
- Some Labour lawmakers have urged Starmer to resign following significant local election losses.
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has won the Makerfield by-election, a victory that significantly bolsters his ambition to replace Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and potentially become Prime Minister.
Burnham secured 54.8% of the vote, a margin that some within the Labour Party believe positions him as the ideal candidate to lead the party against Nigel Farage's Reform UK in a future general election. This outcome could lead to calls for an "orderly transition" of power, potentially prompting Starmer to step aside without a formal leadership contest.
Following substantial local election losses for Labour, a portion of Starmer's parliamentary colleagues have publicly urged him to resign. Burnham has indicated his willingness to contest any leadership race and is widely seen as the frontrunner, though his supporters are reportedly debating the optimal timing and strategy for a challenge.
The Labour Party's rules stipulate that a challenger must secure the backing of 20% of the party's lawmakers in the House of Commons, equating to 81 MPs, to formally enter a leadership contest. Burnham is expected to be sworn into Parliament next week, which would provide him with the platform to initiate such a challenge. Alternative scenarios include Starmer agreeing to an uncontested handover, or another politician, such as Wes Streeting, triggering a contest in which Burnham would also stand.
Burnham could also opt to delay a leadership bid until after the summer, allowing time to campaign for the Labour candidate in the upcoming Greater Manchester mayoral election and to build further support among MPs. Polls suggest that if Burnham, Starmer, and Streeting were to stand against each other, Burnham would likely win.