Key facts
- A by-election is scheduled for Thursday in the Makerfield constituency, northwest England.
- The outcome could determine the future of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
- Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, is seeking the seat to potentially challenge Starmer for Labour leadership.
- Polls suggest a close contest between Burnham and Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon.
- Burnham would need support from 81 Labour MPs to trigger a leadership contest if he wins.
A by-election in the Makerfield constituency, northwest England, is scheduled for Thursday, with significant implications for the leadership of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The vote was triggered by the resignation of incumbent MP Josh Simons, creating an opportunity for Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Greater Manchester and a vocal critic of Starmer, to re-enter Parliament and potentially challenge for the Labour leadership. Polls suggest a close contest between Burnham and the Reform UK candidate, Robert Kenyon, with the outcome potentially determining Starmer's immediate political future. If Burnham loses, his leadership ambitions are likely over, granting Starmer a temporary reprieve. However, a victory for Burnham could pave the way for a leadership challenge, either soon after the election or at Labour's annual conference in September. Starmer has cautioned against a leadership contest, warning it would plunge the country into chaos. Meanwhile, Starmer faces multiple challenges at the G7 summit, including Middle East tensions, a trade dispute with China, and the war in Ukraine.