Key facts
- Andy Burnham has called for an open debate on the Labour Party's direction.
- Burnham stated there is a "climate of fear" within the party that is shutting down debate.
- A poll suggests tactical voting could push Reform UK into fourth place and Labour closer to a majority.
- The poll indicates that Labour would be the largest party if an election were held today, with 272 seats.
- Reform UK could become the official opposition with 153 seats.
- The Conservatives would fall to third place with 85 seats.
Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has called for an open debate within the Labour Party, citing a "climate of fear" that he believes is stifling discussion on the party's direction. His comments come as a new poll suggests that widespread tactical voting could significantly alter the outcome of the next general election, potentially pushing Reform UK into fourth place and bringing Labour closer to a majority.
The poll, conducted by Survation and the progressive activist site 38 Degrees, surveyed over 8,000 voters. It indicates a substantial shift of left-leaning voters back towards Labour, motivated by a desire to prevent Nigel Farage's Reform UK from gaining ground. The research suggests that if voters are prepared to switch their vote to the strongest local contender in a two-horse race, Reform UK could lose approximately 90 seats, falling from second to fourth place, even if its own vote share increases.
Under a scenario with higher levels of tactical voting, the model projects Reform UK would be reduced to 62 seats. This would result in Labour gaining 319 seats, falling just six short of a majority, and the Conservatives picking up more seats, reaching 46 of the 91 seats where Reform would no longer be the most likely winner. The poll also shows that Labour is regaining voters from other left-wing parties, but not from Reform.
Burnham's call for debate is timely, as the poll results emerge on the eve of Labour's annual conference. The findings could encourage those within the party considering an early election, particularly while Reform's ratings are perceived to be ebbing and left-wing parties like the Greens appear to be losing momentum. The poll suggests that Labour would be the largest party in parliament if an election were held today, securing 272 seats, with Reform UK becoming the official opposition on 153 seats and the Conservatives falling to third place with 85 seats.