Key facts
- A poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied in the Texas Senate race.
- President Donald Trump's approval rating in Texas is 44% approve, 53% disapprove.
- Talarico has a significant fundraising advantage.
- The National Republican Senatorial Committee has set up a joint fundraising committee with Paxton.
A new poll indicates a dead heat between Democratic candidate Talarico and Republican candidate Paxton in the upcoming Texas Senate race. The poll found 44 percent of Texas voters approve of President Donald Trump's job performance, with 53 percent disapproving, a notable figure in a state Trump won by approximately 14 percent in 2024. Talarico's campaign is considered the most viable Democratic effort to win a major statewide Texas race since Beto O'Rourke's close loss in 2018. Talarico possesses a significant fundraising advantage. Democrats see Paxton's primary victory over Senator John Cornyn as an opportunity in Texas, a state that has historically been challenging for the party. Republicans have expressed concerns about the cost of supporting Paxton, potentially up to $150 million, following a contentious primary where Trump endorsed Paxton's challenger late in the race. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supported Cornyn during the primary, established a joint fundraising committee with Paxton in early June. The New York Times/Siena poll surveyed 656 likely voters via telephone between June 19-27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.