Key facts
- A decade after the 2016 referendum, Brexit continues to divide Britain and impact its economy.
- Most researchers and government institutions agree that Brexit has harmed the UK economy, with estimates suggesting it has cost the economy between 4% and 8% of GDP.
- The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reports a 4% decrease in productivity and projects a 15% long-term reduction in EU exports and imports.
- While EU immigration decreased after freedom of movement ended, overall net migration reached record highs due to an increase in non-EU immigration.
- Pro-Brexit promises to control borders and curb immigration were partially met by ending EU free movement, but overall immigration levels did not significantly decrease.
Ten years after the United Kingdom narrowly voted to leave the European Union in a 2016 referendum, the decision continues to be a source of division and economic impact. While 52% of voters chose to leave and 48% to remain, the subsequent years of negotiations and political turmoil culminated in the UK's official departure in early 2020.
Conflicting claims made during the campaign regarding Brexit's benefits or detriments persist. The Remain campaign's assertion that leaving the EU would significantly harm the UK economy appears to have been borne out by the consensus among researchers and government institutions. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) indicates a 4% drop in productivity and projects a 15% long-term decrease in the UK's EU exports and imports. Economists estimate Brexit has cost the UK economy between 4% and 8% of GDP, with some suggesting a range of 3% to 5% is more plausible.
While some minor benefits, such as a free trade agreement with India, have been noted, their impact on the British economy has been minimal. Experts acknowledge that disentangling Brexit's effects from subsequent global crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine is challenging, but data consistently points to economic harm.
Immigration was another key battleground, with Leave campaigners promising full border control and reduced migration. While immigration from EU countries has fallen dramatically since the end of freedom of movement, overall net migration reached record levels in 2023, largely due to an increase in non-EU immigration. Figures show net UK migration dropped to 171,000 in 2025, aligning with pre-Brexit levels. Economists note that while the promise to end EU free movement was kept, the expectation of a significant overall reduction in immigration did not materialize, as non-EU migration increased to fill labor shortages.