Key facts
- Economists largely agree Brexit has reduced the UK economy's size.
- Studies show a significant drop in the variety and volume of UK goods exports to the EU.
- Despite zero tariffs, post-Brexit red tape has increased costs and delays for exporters.
- UK business investment is notably lower than pre-referendum trends.
- Services trade has shown strength, but overall economic performance lags behind some G7 nations.
Ten years after the UK voted to leave the European Union, economic analyses increasingly point to persistent negative consequences, particularly on trade and investment. While global events like the pandemic and the war in Ukraine complicate precise measurement, a consensus among economists suggests Brexit has significantly reduced the UK's economic output.
A specific example is Eskimo, a UK firm that saw its exports to the EU plummet from 40% to 5% due to post-Brexit red tape and paperwork, despite the trade deal guaranteeing zero tariffs. This friction has led the company to cease direct sales to European consumers and abandon expansion plans.
Studies from institutions like the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University and Aston University Business School highlight a substantial decrease in the variety and volume of UK goods traded with the EU. Figures indicate a rapid reduction in the number of product types exported to EU countries, with some analyses showing a loss of over 50% in export varieties. Official trade data shows UK goods exports to the EU were 14% lower and imports 10% lower in 2025 compared to 2019 levels, with recent years showing the worst performance this century outside of the financial crisis.
Conversely, the UK's services sector has shown resilience, with exports to the EU up 57% over the past decade, driven by categories like accountancy, legal services, and consultancy. However, economists debate whether this performance would have been even stronger without Brexit.
Business investment has also been significantly impacted. Former Bank of England economist Jonathan Haskel estimates a £29 billion reduction in the UK economy due to lower investment than would have been expected. Analyses suggest UK business investment is 12-13% below pre-referendum trends and lags behind other G7 nations, though it has recently overtaken Germany following the impact of the 2022 energy crisis on the German economy.
The most immediate economic shock following the referendum was the sharp depreciation of the pound, making imports and travel more expensive and reducing the global value of UK assets.