Key facts
- A global shortage of about 150 rocket launches is projected by 2030.
- The shortage could double if US military demand is factored in.
- SpaceX is winding down its Falcon 9 program, intensifying the crisis.
- Starship's commercial launch availability is uncertain due to its payload door design.
A report by analytics firm Quilty Space indicates a significant global shortage of rockets over the next five years, estimating a shortfall of about 150 launches by 2030. This crisis, exacerbated by factors like the war in Ukraine, developmental delays in new rocket generations, and SpaceX's winding down of its Falcon 9 program, could worsen if US military demand is included. The report suggests the shortage may persist until the late 2030s, with the crunch expected to be most acute in 2028. SpaceX's Starship, despite its potential, is not being aggressively marketed as a commercial launch option, and its current payload door is optimized for Starlink satellites, not traditional spacecraft. Mitigating factors could include an accelerated launch cadence for Blue Origin's New Glenn and increased US military demand, which may compel SpaceX to prioritize national security missions.