South Korea GDP to grow 0.38% over 10 years from CPTPP membership
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IN SHORT
South Korea's economy is projected to grow by 0.38% over the decade following potential membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources. The analysis, involving multiple government ministries, estimated an annual increase in manufacturing production of 6.3 trillion won to 6.7 trillion won, while agricultural production is expected to decline.
Key Numbers
0.38%projected GDP growth over 10 years from CPTPP membership
6.3 trillion won to 6.7 trillion wonannual projected increase in manufacturing production
710 billion wonestimated annual decline in agricultural production
15.2%share of global trade by CPTPP members in 2019
US$4.6 billionannual projected increase in manufacturing production
Who's Involved
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources
released projection on CPTPP membership impact
South Korea
economy projected to grow 0.38% over 10 years from CPTPP membership
↳ Why This Matters
South Korea's potential entry into the CPTPP could significantly boost its manufacturing sector and overall GDP, though it may negatively impact agricultural production, highlighting the trade-offs involved in joining the major Indo-Pacific trade bloc.
Key facts
South Korea's GDP is projected to be 0.38 percentage point higher cumulatively over the first decade after CPTPP entry.
The manufacturing sector's production impact is projected to increase by 6.3 trillion won to 6.7 trillion won annually.
Agricultural production is estimated to decline by 710 billion won.
The CPTPP comprises 12 countries including Japan, Mexico, Australia, Canada, and Vietnam.
CPTPP member countries accounted for about 15.2% of global trade in 2019.
SEOUL, Sept. 28 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's economy is projected to grow by 0.38 percent over the 10 years following its potential membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the industry ministry said Monday. The government released the projection after conducting a comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of South Korea's CPTPP membership on the macroeconomy, manufacturing and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), as well as the agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources (MOTIR).
The latest estimate showed that South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) would be 0.38 percentage point higher, on a cumulative basis, over the first decade after its entry into the CPTPP than it would be if the country did not join the trade pact, the ministry said. By sector, the production impact on the manufacturing sector is projected to increase by 6.3 trillion won (US$4.6 billion) to 6.7 trillion won annually over the 15 years following membership, while the impact on agricultural production is estimated to be a decline of 710 billion won.
The CPTPP is a major Indo-Pacific trade agreement comprising 12 countries, including Japan, Mexico, Australia, Canada and Vietnam. Together, the member countries accounted for about 15.2 percent of global trade in 2019. In 2022, the South Korean government decided to pursue membership in the CPTPP. However, it did not submit a formal application, amid opposition from the agriculture and fisheries sectors and strained relations with Japan. Last month, the government said it would review whether to seek membership by closely examining the national interest and tangible benefits that joining the pact would have on the livelihoods of ordinary people.
Frequently asked questions
The CPTPP, or Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is a major Indo-Pacific trade agreement comprising 12 countries, including Japan, Mexico, Australia, Canada, and Vietnam. These member countries collectively represented about 15.2% of global trade in 2019.
The economy is projected to grow by 0.38% cumulatively over 10 years. The manufacturing sector is expected to see an annual production increase of 6.3 trillion to 6.7 trillion won, while agricultural production is estimated to decline by 710 billion won.
The South Korean government decided to pursue membership in the CPTPP in 2022.
What Happens Next
01The South Korean government will review whether to seek CPTPP membership by examining national interest and tangible benefits.
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