Key facts
- Quebec will hold a provincial election on October 5.
- Polls suggest the separatist Parti Quebecois is favored to win.
- The Parti Quebecois has stated it will not hold an independence referendum until 2029.
- The current governing party, Coalition Avenir Quebec, is trailing in voter support.
- Quebec has been heavily affected by the trade war with the United States.
Quebec is set to hold a provincial election on October 5, with current polling data indicating a strong likelihood that the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) will form the next government. Premier Christine Frechette of the center-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) announced the election date, marking the latest possible day under provincial law. The CAQ, which has been in power since 2018 and was re-elected in 2022, is now trailing the PQ due to voter fatigue and dissatisfaction with high living costs and the healthcare system.
The PQ, aiming to govern for the first time in over a decade, has historically advocated for Quebec's independence from Canada. However, PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon recently stated that the party would postpone any referendum on separation until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office in 2029. Quebec has been particularly affected by the ongoing trade dispute with the United States, and Trump is reportedly less popular there than in other parts of Canada. Previous independence referendums in 1980 and 1995 both failed, and recent polls consistently show a majority of Quebecers are against secession.