Key facts
- Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated maximalist war aims and demands, stating the war will end on Moscow's terms.
- Putin claimed Russian forces captured 2,440 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, a figure later corrected from a much larger initial claim.
- Analysts note Ukraine has gained an advantage in medium-range strikes, targeting Russian logistics and military sites.
- Russia's territorial gains have been limited, with May seeing less territory captured than lost for the first time since late 2023.
- Putin claimed full control of Luhansk Oblast, while approximately 20% of Donetsk Oblast remains under Ukrainian control.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has maintained his maximalist war aims and demands, asserting that the conflict will ultimately conclude on Moscow's terms, despite evolving battlefield realities and recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory.
During discussions at Russia's flagship economic forum, Putin reiterated his unchanged vision for the war, claiming Russia is advancing and will achieve its objectives. Oleksii Melnyk, co-director at the Razumkov Center, noted that Putin's statement about the war ending 'based on the situation on the front line' still reflects a belief in Ukraine's capitulation, not a recognition of Russia's limited gains or growing difficulties.
Putin's claims regarding territorial gains have been inconsistent, initially stating Russian forces captured 2,440,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory before the figure was corrected to 2,440 square kilometers in the official transcript. Melnyk emphasized that Putin's maximalist demands have remained constant for at least a year, contrasting with the changing war situation.
Regarding battlefield performance, Putin claimed parity or advantage in some sectors and in long-range drone warfare. While Russia retains advantages in manpower and defense-industrial capacity, analysts like Emil Kastehelmi of Black Bird Group argue that momentum is increasingly measured by medium-range strikes on logistics and infrastructure. Ukraine has shifted its strategy to focus on these deeper strikes, aiming to inflict maximum casualties and disrupt Russian operations.
Kastehelmi noted that Russian advances have been limited, averaging less than 100 square kilometers per month this year, with May seeing less territory captured than lost for the first time since the latter half of 2023. Despite a 37.5% increase in battlefield clashes in May, Ukraine's focus remains on maximizing Russian losses.
Putin also reiterated the objective of liberating Donbas, claiming full control of Luhansk Oblast. Analysts estimate that approximately 99% of Luhansk is under Russian control, while about 20% of Donetsk Oblast, including key urban defense centers, remains Ukrainian-held. Capturing the remaining territory is expected to be challenging and costly.
Furthermore, Putin commented on Ukraine's security arrangements, questioning its reliance on U.S. aid while seeking European guarantees. He also praised U.S. President Donald Trump and referenced a past criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's attire, which Melnyk interpreted as an attempt to influence Trump and a sign of Putin's hope for U.S. pressure on Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to engage with U.S. representatives on ending the war. Zelensky described a recent conversation with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as "very positive," noting their readiness to work on an agreement.