Key facts
- The Green party is four points behind Labour in urban constituencies, according to ThinkLabour polling.
- The poll suggests the Green party could take up to 40 seats if this trend continues.
- Urban voters have moved significantly towards the Green party since the 2024 general election.
- The research highlights a challenge for Labour in holding the Holborn and St Pancras seat in an upcoming byelection.
- The report advises Labour against direct attacks on the Greens, likening it to 'kicking a puppy'.
- Support for the Greens in major cities has increased by 12 points, while Labour's share has fallen by 20 points.
New polling from the Labour-aligned thinktank ThinkLabour suggests the Green party is closing the gap with Labour in urban constituencies, potentially posing a significant challenge to the governing party's electoral strategy. The survey indicates that urban voters have shifted towards the Greens since the last general election, with support in major cities rising by 12 points while Labour's share has fallen by 20 points.
The findings highlight a difficult task for Labour in winning back progressive voters who were instrumental in their previous electoral success. The report warns that direct attacks on the Green party by Labour politicians could be counterproductive, likening the effect to 'kicking a puppy' and alienating potential supporters.
Christabel Cooper, a report author, noted that the previous strategy of warning voters about Nigel Farage becoming prime minister is no longer effective in the identified urban seats. She stated that the Greens can now position themselves as the progressive choice. The research, conducted as Prime Minister Andy Burnham took office, did not capture the full impact of his early premiership, which has seen Labour gain ground with progressive voters.
The report also found that financially struggling voters are moving away from Labour towards the Greens, challenging the stereotype of Green voters as affluent liberals. It suggests that Labour needs to focus on practical progressive arguments, particularly on immigration, to regain trust. The study indicated that criticisms of the Greens' foreign policy were more credible to voters than their stances on issues like drug legalization or personal attacks on Green leader Zack Polanski.