Key facts
- Keir Starmer's closest aides are reportedly "war-gaming" how to win a leadership contest.
- Andy Burnham has indicated he would seek to join any potential Labour leadership contest if he wins the Makerfield by-election and returns to Westminster.
- Burnham has not ruled out challenging Starmer himself.
- Starmer's allies are determined to fight any challenge, with one senior aide stating, "if so, Keir’s not going without a fight."
- A YouGov poll showed 59% of Labour members would back Burnham against Starmer in a leadership contest.
Aides to Labour leader Keir Starmer are reportedly engaged in "war-gaming" scenarios for a potential leadership contest, with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham emerging as a significant challenger. The Guardian understands that Starmer's closest advisors are preparing for a contest should Burnham win the upcoming Makerfield by-election and return to Westminster, a move Burnham himself has indicated he would pursue.
Sources close to Starmer express determination to fight any challenge, with one senior aide stating, "if so, Keir’s not going without a fight." However, some allies acknowledge that Starmer's future may ultimately be beyond his control. A YouGov poll cited by allies suggests that 59% of Labour members would back Burnham in a leadership contest, compared to 37% for Starmer.
Allies of Starmer argue that Burnham is not fully prepared for a leadership challenge, suggesting that his initial focus after a potential by-election victory would be on campaigning for re-election as Mayor of Greater Manchester. They believe that by the time of party conference season, any momentum Burnham might have gained could have ebbed. Starmer himself has warned MPs about the dangers of the party turning inward, drawing parallels to the Conservative party's internal struggles.
In contrast to Starmer's perceived technocratic approach, Andy Burnham is described as offering a more left-leaning vision, emphasizing public control, devolution, and industrial rebirth. This contrasts with Starmer's strategy, which some observers believe prioritized defining the government against the left, leading to alienation of progressive voters and an "existential crisis" for Labour.