OPEC+ is expected to approve one final production increase for September, then pause quota adjustments until 2027. The group is reassessing members' sustainable production capacities, complicated by geopolitical events and infrastructure issues that have constrained actual output.
The decision by OPEC+ to pause output target increases, despite actual production constraints, signals an intention to manage supply and potentially influence global oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical risks to export routes.
OPEC+ is expected to approve one final production increase for September, after which it intends to pause adjustments to its monthly output targets through the end of 2026. Sources indicate that current production levels will be maintained until new quotas are established in January 2027. The group is currently reviewing the sustainable production capacities of its member nations, a process that will inform the baselines for 2027. This reassessment is complicated by factors such as the Iran war, export bottlenecks in Iraq, and disruptions affecting Russian production, which have reduced the group's effective spare capacity despite recent target increases. While OPEC+ has been granting permission for supply restoration, actual group output has fallen short due to various operational and logistical constraints. The upcoming decisions will determine how much capacity is officially recognized, who receives higher quotas, and whether the market will require the additional supply in 2027, especially if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover.
Pick the topics you care about. Get only what matters, on your cadence.