Key facts
- Brent crude futures briefly surpassed $90 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran conflict.
- Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are impacting global oil supply concerns.
- U.S. forces conducted new strikes against Iran, which claimed retaliatory actions.
- The Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy transit route, has seen traffic come to a standstill.
- Barclays anticipates potential upside risks to Brent prices, with spot prices possibly testing $150/bbl in a prolonged Hormuz impasse scenario.
Global oil prices surged, with Brent crude briefly touching $90 per barrel in early Asian trade, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. U.S. forces launched a new wave of strikes against Iran, prompting claims of retaliation from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including targeting U.S. aircraft and military assets, and alleging two oil tankers exploded near Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that strikes would continue until Iran ceases attacking vessels in the international waterway. Consequently, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reportedly come to a standstill, raising concerns about global oil supply during peak demand season. Barclays forecasts potential upside risks to Brent prices, suggesting a three-month impasse in Hormuz could add $10 per barrel to its 2026 forecast and push spot prices towards $150 per barrel. Despite these supply risks, OPEC+ plans to increase its September output. Earlier developments included Houthi attacks impacting Saudi crude exports and QatarEnergy extending force majeure declarations on LNG deliveries.