Oil prices fall as Trump rules out Iran strikes before midterms

Trump indicated that discussions with Iran are continuing and that oil is flowing in record quantities. According to Axios, U.S. and Israeli officials have stated that Iranian leaders are highly suspicious of Trump's declarations and are keen to avoid any further surprise attacks. This comes after a report from The Atlantic indicated that the Pentagon was developing strike options for the President's consideration before the midterms, though the decision was still under debate.

The period of relative calm in direct military engagement with Iran has coincided with the final stages of the midterm election campaign. The prevailing assumption was that President Trump would seek to maintain this tranquility through November 3 to avoid reminding voters of an unpopular conflict that could negatively impact Republican candidates. However, administration officials revealed that the White House had requested the Pentagon to prepare strike options, aiming to reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote. Paradoxically, a renewed outbreak of direct bombing could lead to the opposite effect, as oil prices have historically risen on news of major escalations.

Earlier on Wednesday, reports from Iran confirmed that negotiations were stalemated, while Iranian forces had increased their targeting of tankers with drones in the Strait of Hormuz over the preceding week.