Key facts
- California Democrats view Gavin Newsom as a stronger potential 2028 presidential contender than Kamala Harris.
- A poll found Harris lags Newsom in voter interest and expectations of success.
- Newsom's job approval rating is 42% favorable among registered voters, with 55% disapproving.
- The poll surveyed 2,418 registered voters from September 8-14.
California Democrats perceive Governor Gavin Newsom as a more viable presidential candidate for 2028 than Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a poll. The surveys, conducted by TrueDot in collaboration with the Citrin Center at UC Berkeley and POLITICO, indicate that Harris trails Newsom significantly in terms of voter interest and anticipated performance.
"There’s no, really, enthusiasm for Harris running at all," said Mark Citrin, commenting on the poll's findings. "She lags well behind Newsom in terms of both interest in them running and in expectations of how well they would do."
Robert Van Houweling, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, suggested that the perception of Newsom's stronger electability would influence voters. "They would certainly weigh electability to some degree," he stated. "There is enthusiasm in some sense or excitedness for both of them, but I would think concerns about electability would certainly tilt the choice even further towards Newsom, given the data we have here."
Newsom's job approval ratings have seen a slight decline, with 42% of registered voters approving and 55% disapproving, a shift from the previous poll's 46%-51% rating. This decrease was primarily driven by independents and Republicans, while Democratic support remained largely stable, with about three-quarters viewing him favorably. "People are pretty dour on the state," said David Cohen, adding that this sentiment is not yet reflected in ballot choices for top-ticket Democrats, but his approval rating may indicate broader views on the state's direction.
The voter survey involved 2,418 registered voters, including 1,983 likely voters, interviewed online from September 8-14. A parallel survey of political and policy influencers was conducted from September 11-16. The margin of error for the registered voter survey is plus or minus 2.7%, for likely voters it is plus or minus 3%, and for influencers it is plus or minus 4.5%.