Key facts
- A proposed one-time 5% tax on wealthy Californians faces significant opposition.
- 83% of likely voters are aware of the tax measure.
- Voters who are most informed about the tax are largely opposed.
- Opponents have a significant financial advantage in advertising.
- The measure is popular among Democratic voters.
- A plurality of voters believe Governor Newsom opposes the tax to protect wealthy interests.
A proposed one-time 5% tax on wealthy Californians is encountering significant headwinds, according to a new poll. While awareness of the measure is high, with 83% of likely voters having heard about it, those who are most informed are also the most opposed, by a 57-38 margin. This opposition is being amplified by opponents who have launched advertising campaigns warning that the tax will not remain a one-time levy. Billionaire opponents have allocated tens of millions of dollars to defeat the measure, while proponents are largely funded by a single health care union.
Despite these challenges, the poll indicates a narrow path for supporters. Undecided voters lean towards supporting the tax, and it garners popularity among Democratic voters. Furthermore, a significant portion of voters across parties view billionaires as doing more harm than good. However, pollsters note that the support for the measure is "soft," and moderate voters may be more receptive to economic warnings from opponents.
The poll also suggests that Governor Gavin Newsom's strong opposition to the tax could pose a liability if he seeks a presidential nomination in 2028. A plurality of voters, including Democrats, believe he is opposing the tax to protect wealthy interests rather than the state's economy.