Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in hypothetical second-round presidential election matchups.
- An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows Lula with 49.2% of votes versus Bolsonaro's 42.9% in a runoff.
- A Genial/Quaest poll indicates Lula would defeat Bolsonaro 45% to 37% in a runoff.
- In first-round scenarios, Lula leads Bolsonaro with 44.9% (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg) and 40% (Genial/Quaest) respectively.
- Lula's advantage over Bolsonaro has grown in both first- and second-round polling over the past three months.
SAO PAULO, July 29 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is leading opposition Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in potential second-round matchups for the October presidential election, according to recent polls. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released Wednesday showed Lula would receive 49.2% of votes in a runoff, compared to 42.9% for Bolsonaro. In the same poll, Lula led in a first-round scenario with 44.9% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 35.8%. Undecided voters and those intending to cast blank or spoiled ballots fell to 7.9% from 8.9% in June. The poll surveyed 5,021 people between July 22 and 27 and has a margin of error of one percentage point.
Separately, a Genial/Quaest poll also released Wednesday indicated Lula would defeat Flávio Bolsonaro by 45% to 37% in a runoff, an eight-point margin. In a first-round scenario, this poll showed Lula with 40% of support compared to 28% for Bolsonaro. Over the past three months, Lula has expanded his advantage over Bolsonaro in both first- and second-round scenarios. The Genial/Quaest poll noted that support for Flávio has become less firmly established, with a lower percentage of his supporters stating their vote is final. This poll was released shortly after former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro published a video criticizing Flávio Bolsonaro, highlighting a family dispute.
Other prospective candidates in the first-round scenario include Renan Santos at 7.8%, Ronaldo Caiado at 3.1%, and Romeu Zema at 2.8% in the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll. The Genial/Quaest poll showed Ronaldo Caiado receiving 4%, Renan Santos with 3%, and Romeu Zema with 2%.