Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie for a potential runoff in Brazil's presidential election.
- A Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual shows Lula with 46% support and Bolsonaro with 45% in a simulated second-round runoff.
- In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 41% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%.
- The poll surveyed 2,006 people between August 21-23, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie in a potential runoff ahead of the October presidential election, according to a Nexus poll commissioned by lender BTG Pactual. The poll, conducted between August 21-23 among 2,006 people, shows Lula receiving 46% of voter support in a simulated second-round runoff, compared to 45% for Bolsonaro. This represents a slight shift from a previous August 17 poll, which had Lula leading Bolsonaro 47%-44%.
In a first-round scenario, the poll indicates Lula would lead with 41% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 37%. This is also a slight increase for Bolsonaro from the previous poll, where he had 36% support against Lula's 41%. The election proceeds to a runoff if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.