Key facts
- Kazakhstan is holding a snap parliamentary election on Sunday.
- President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's new party, Adilet, is expected to win.
- Constitutional changes allow Tokayev to extend his term in power.
- The election follows 2022 unrest and a break with former President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
- Adilet was formed from the dissolution of the long-standing ruling party Amanat.
Kazakhstan is holding a snap parliamentary election on Sunday, with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's newly formed party, Adilet, widely expected to secure a significant majority. This election follows constitutional changes that allow Tokayev to extend his term in power for another seven years, consolidating his control over the Central Asian nation. Tokayev, who succeeded Nursultan Nazarbayev, broke with his predecessor in 2022 and has maintained a balanced foreign policy, keeping ties with China, Russia, and the West. He recently suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin should seek peace in Ukraine.
The election is seen as an opportunity for Tokayev to remove figures associated with Nazarbayev from the political landscape. Adilet was formed from the dissolution of the long-standing ruling party Amanat, with top aides to Tokayev leading the new entity. Opinion polls indicate a strong performance for Adilet, with several smaller, ostensibly loyal opposition parties also anticipated to enter parliament. However, analysts like Rustam Burnashev suggest that significant political reform is unlikely, and the parliament may not be transformative.
Kazakhstan, a significant oil producer, has benefited from trade flows rerouted by the war in Ukraine, though this has been accompanied by inflationary pressures impacting living standards. Citizens like fruit seller Atapsha express a lack of high expectations for immediate improvement, despite hoping for change. The recent constitutional amendments have streamlined the parliament to a single chamber and introduced a vice-president role, with a court ruling effectively nullifying Tokayev's previous terms, enabling him to seek re-election.