Key facts
- Many Latino voters in South Texas are expressing frustration with the Republican Party over economic pressures and Trump's immigration agenda.
- Texas Republicans redrew congressional maps based on Trump's 2024 performance, aiming to secure more favorable districts.
- Newly configured districts, such as Texas' 15th and 35th Congressional Districts, remain heavily Latino but have become more competitive.
- A poll found 18% of Latinos who voted for Trump now no longer support him, and almost two-thirds would be less likely to vote for candidates supporting Trump's immigration policies.
- Democratic congressional candidate Bobby Pulido is leading incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz in Texas' 15th District, according to a poll.
South Texas Latino voters, who helped Donald Trump achieve his strongest showing among the demographic this century in 2024, are expressing growing frustration with the Republican Party over economic pressures and immigration policies. This sentiment could jeopardize Republican efforts to solidify gains in the region, as reflected in the redrawing of congressional maps.
Reuters traveled over 360 miles across South Texas and spoke to more than 30 Latino voters. Many shared a common refrain: President Trump had an opportunity to lower prices but failed, leaving them unconvinced that the Republican Party represents their interests. Trump's national approval rating has fallen to 33%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.
Texas Republicans had banked on Trump's 2024 performance to secure several districts ahead of the 2026 elections. However, many newly configured districts, while remaining heavily Latino, have become more competitive. For instance, Texas' 15th Congressional District has 74.5% Latino population and is rated a Toss-up by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Lean Republican by Cook Political. The 35th District, with a 51.6% Latino population, is rated Lean Republican.
A poll by Texas Southern University in August 2026 indicated Democratic congressional candidates leading in three South Texas districts, including the 15th. Interviews with analysts, activists, pollsters, and voters suggest some Latinos who voted for Trump are now open to Democrats. Saúl Guajardo, 53, of McAllen, who voted for Trump three times, stated he is now more open to voting Democrat, citing economic struggles and his wife Terrie's view that Trump's immigration crackdown was too harsh.
Polling data supports this shift, with a September poll of 1,000 Latinos in Texas finding that 18% of those who voted for Trump no longer support him. Almost two-thirds of Latino voters indicated they would be less likely to support candidates who endorse Trump's immigration policies. Experts like Daniel Alegre, CEO of TelevisaUnivision, note that Latino voters prioritize economic improvement over party loyalty.
However, Republicans dispute the notion of a significant shift. Christian Martinez, National Republican Congressional Committee's national Hispanic press secretary, argued that Democrats have failed to address the concerns driving working-class voters toward Republicans. In the 15th District, Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a singer with significant name recognition, is challenging incumbent Monica De La Cruz. A Texas Southern University poll showed Pulido leading De La Cruz by five percentage points. Pulido himself acknowledges that both parties often misunderstand the Hispanic vote, emphasizing a desire for opportunity rather than handouts.