Key facts
- Argentina's poverty rate is expected to increase in the first half of 2026.
- Official poverty data for the first half of 2026 is due Thursday from INDEC.
- Estimates suggest the poverty rate could reach 35% by year-end, reversing a decline to 28% in 2025.
- Agustín Salvia forecasts the current poverty rate is between 31% and 32%.
- Unemployment stood at 7.9% in the second quarter of 2026.
- Milei's approval rating among lower-income voters has fallen significantly.
Argentina's poverty rate is poised to rise in the first half of 2026, signaling increasing social hardship under President Javier Milei's administration, according to economists and social observers. Official data from the INDEC statistics agency is expected on Thursday, with estimates suggesting the poverty rate could climb to 35% by year-end, reversing a significant decline seen in 2025.
These figures mark a potential setback for Milei, who came to power in late 2023 promising economic reforms and with strong support from lower- and middle-income voters. While his government has succeeded in curbing runaway inflation and stabilizing public finances through austerity measures, including cuts to subsidies and public-sector pay, many Argentines are finding it harder to make ends meet. This has led to a resurgence of cash-free barter clubs and increased reliance on short-term loans for basic necessities.
Analysts suggest that while the projected increase in poverty may not erase the gains made under Milei, it indicates that the easier phase of economic improvement has passed. Further progress is now seen as dependent on job creation and real wage growth. Opinion polls reflect this shift, with Milei's approval rating falling among lower-income respondents, raising questions about his ability to retain a crucial part of his electoral base ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Despite the growing social strains, the government maintains its commitment to its austerity program, with a spokesperson stating that the president will not deviate from his plan or loosen monetary policy to gain electoral favor. Business owners like Gustavo Raúl Pérez, who sells hardware, report a significant drop in sales as customers struggle with affordability, expressing disappointment with the changes since Milei took office.