Key facts
- Global grains production is forecast to fall by 2.7% in the 2026-27 season.
- The decline is attributed to smaller anticipated harvests of corn and wheat.
- Total grains production is projected to be 2,422 million tonnes, a decrease from the previous record.
- Carryover stocks are forecast to be tighter, potentially falling to 610 million tonnes.
- Global soyabean output is expected to reach a new peak in 2026-27.
- The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased by 7%.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has forecast a 2.7% decrease in global grains production for the 2026-27 season, primarily due to anticipated smaller harvests of corn and wheat. This would result in total grains production of 2,422 million tonnes, a notable drop from the previous season's record output. The reduction in crop outlook, combined with a smaller carry-in, is expected to tighten overall supplies, with carryover stocks projected to fall to 610 million tonnes.
Despite the overall decline in grains, world soyabean output is predicted to expand by 10 million tonnes year-on-year in 2026-27, reaching a new peak. Global soyabean utilisation is also expected to hit a record. However, the outlook for world rice production in 2026-27 has been cut by 2 million tonnes. Grain trade is projected to decline to 450 million tonnes, influenced by expected reductions in shipments to Near East Asia and North Africa.
In response to strengthening wheat, soyabean, and maize prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 7%, reaching its highest level since June 2024.