Key facts
- OPEC has lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the third consecutive month.
- The organization revised down its 2026 oil demand projection by 190,000 b/d to 105.94 million b/d.
- OPEC upgraded its oil demand growth forecast for 2027 by 210,000 b/d to 107.86 million b/d.
- Demand downgrades were primarily attributed to China and India.
- OPEC+ crude output increased by nearly 3 million b/d in June as shipping conditions improved.
OPEC has trimmed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the third consecutive month, even as crude production rebounds across the Gulf and tanker traffic slowly returns to the Strait of Hormuz. In its monthly oil market report, OPEC lowered expected oil demand growth for 2026 by 190,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast to 105.94 million b/d. The producer group still expects stronger consumption than many other forecasters, including the International Energy Agency, and raised its demand growth estimate for 2027 by 210,000 b/d to 107.86 million b/d. The downgrade reflects a market that is becoming less worried about finding oil than finding customers for it. OPEC+’s June output climbed roughly 3 million barrels per day from May to average 36.28 million b/d as Gulf producers restarted volumes that had been stranded during the Iran war. Those barrels were moved as the Strait of Hormuz reopened enough to allow oil that had been sitting in storage and behind export bottlenecks to be shipped. The United States is producing nearly 14 million barrels per day, while the UAE pumped a record 4.1 million b/d in June. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran are also bringing production back online as shipping conditions improve. Every additional barrel enters a market where OPEC is steadily lowering its expectations for consumption. OPEC still sees room for optimism, stating that easing geopolitical tensions could strengthen economic growth during the second half of the year if energy markets and trade flows continue to stabilize. However, shipping through Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, insurance costs remain elevated, and fresh military strikes continue to threaten energy infrastructure across the region. OPEC spent much of this year unable to produce what it wanted because Hormuz was effectively closed. The group's next problem may come from producing everything it wants in a market that wants a little less.