Key facts
- Oil prices are poised for their largest weekly gain since April, with benchmarks rising over 12%.
- Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes have revived the Middle East risk premium, lifting Brent above $76 per barrel.
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed, and supply disruption fears have returned.
- Iran has reportedly instructed Houthi rebels to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening Red Sea oil exports.
- Russia has banned diesel exports for one month, impacting European diesel cracks.
- Freeport LNG terminal in Texas will undergo an unplanned turnaround, affecting Atlantic Basin LNG supply.
Oil prices are poised for their largest weekly gain since April, with benchmarks surging over 12% as escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran intensified, threatening critical shipping lanes. Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes have revived the Middle East risk premium, lifting Brent crude futures above $76 per barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed, with market concerns about continued supply disruptions outweighing President Trump’s attempts at further talks with Tehran. The International Energy Agency (IEA) adjusted its 2026 demand drop expectations to 1 million b/d and anticipates world oil supply to fall by 3.7 million b/d amidst ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. India's ONGC will build a 13-million-barrel crude reserve in Mangalore as New Delhi accelerates its stockpiling capacity. Iran is reportedly squeezing out as many oil tankers as possible, loading 11 million barrels of crude on Thursday, as President Trump threatened to reimpose a blockade on Iranian outflows. QatarEnergy has paused efforts to restart production at its Ras Laffan liquefaction facilities after an attack on an LNG carrier. Russia's government announced a one-month ban on diesel exports, impacting European diesel cracks. Freeport LNG will begin a major turnaround at its Texas liquefaction terminal on July 10, lasting until late August, threatening Atlantic Basin LNG supply.