Key facts
- Health officials in the Democratic Republic of Congo are using anonymized mobile-phone data to track Ebola spread.
- This method aims to identify areas at risk by mapping population movements.
- The current outbreak is the fastest-growing on record, with over 6,250 cases and 3,039 deaths.
- The Bundibugyo species of Ebola is responsible, with no approved vaccines or treatments.
- Flowminder, a Swedish non-profit, analyzes aggregated and anonymized data provided by Vodacom.
- The approach has helped identify risks in locations like Kisangani and potential spread to Kinshasa.
Health officials in the Democratic Republic of Congo are leveraging anonymized mobile-phone data to enhance their response to the ongoing Ebola outbreak, which the World Health Organization has described as the fastest-growing on record. This innovative approach, not previously used in Ebola containment efforts, aims to map population movements and identify potential future hotspots for the virus.
The current outbreak, the 17th in Congo's history, has infected over 6,250 people and caused more than 3,039 deaths since its declaration on May 15. It is caused by the Bundibugyo species of Ebola, for which no approved vaccines or treatments exist.
Traditional methods of assessing risk typically focus on known outbreak areas and assume spread to adjacent regions. However, analyzing mobility data allows responders to pinpoint risks in geographically distant locations that are connected through travel patterns. Olivier Le Polain, head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, stated that understanding population movements is particularly crucial in this epidemic, citing significant movements linked to mining and trade activities in Ituri province.
The analysis is conducted by the Swedish non-profit Flowminder, which uses aggregated and anonymized records generated when mobile phones connect to telecommunications networks. These records are used to estimate travel patterns between different areas. Vodacom, Congo's largest mobile operator, provides this data free of charge. Flowminder emphasizes that it receives only aggregated data and does not access information identifying individual subscribers.
Flowminder's initial analysis in June focused on the presumed origin areas of the outbreak. By tracking individuals who had spent time in these locations, researchers identified significant travel flows to nearby areas in Ituri and North Kivu provinces. By the end of June, all ten destinations receiving the largest flows of travelers from the original outbreak areas had reported confirmed Ebola cases.
As the virus spread, Flowminder expanded its analysis to other affected regions. A key focus was Kisangani, a major transport hub on the Congo River. Data indicated a significant risk of spread to Kisangani, prompting strengthened operations there before the first cases were detected. More recent studies have highlighted connections between Kisangani and Kinshasa, the capital, as well as areas near the borders with the Central African Republic and South Sudan. Fifteen of the 50 areas most connected to Kisangani were in Kinshasa province, indicating a substantial risk to the capital.
The WHO continues to warn about the potential for the outbreak to spread to Kinshasa and neighboring countries, estimating a 70% probability of a case being detected in Kinshasa by the end of September.
A limitation of the current analysis is its reliance on data from a single operator, Vodacom, which, despite being the largest in Congo, does not capture movements of users on rival networks. Additionally, the data provides only a partial picture of cross-border movements. Efforts are underway to secure agreements with other operators to improve data coverage.