Key facts
- Cracks are emerging in the Republican Party's firewall in Florida.
- Some polling shows statewide races, including for governor and U.S. Senate, are within the margin of error.
- Factors contributing to the concern include Donald Trump's immigration policies and high gas prices.
- Hispanic voters are reportedly shifting leftward, eroding a key part of Trump's coalition.
- A Miami Republican congresswoman launched an ad criticizing Trump's deportation policies.
- The Republican candidate for governor has raised significantly more funds than his Democratic opponent.
Republicans in Florida are facing growing concerns about their electoral prospects, with some insiders describing the situation as 'hemorrhaging' and a potential erosion of the state's traditional GOP firewall. Factors contributing to this unease include Donald Trump's immigration policies, high gas prices, and a reported shift among Hispanic voters towards the Democratic Party.
While few top Republicans are publicly panicking, interviews with nearly two dozen GOP politicians, operatives, and consultants reveal emerging worries. Carlos Curbelo, a former Florida GOP House member, likened the current atmosphere to 2018, when Democrats saw significant gains, and noted that many former colleagues are 'bracing for the worst.' He still anticipates a Republican win for governor but expects it to be more competitive than anticipated.
State Sen. Don Gaetz acknowledged that any Republican on the ballot should be concerned if they face a Democratic opponent. Despite a significant Republican voter registration advantage and substantial fundraising by the GOP gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Byron Donalds, shifts in voter sentiment are causing alarm. A New York Times analysis indicated Hispanic voters are moving left, and a Fox News poll showed several Florida House races moving from 'Likely R' to 'Lean R' or 'Toss-up.' Decision Desk HQ rates the governor's race as a 'toss up.'
One anonymous GOP county chair described the situation as 'hemorrhaging,' questioning whether the party can stop the bleeding before reaching critical condition. Specific concerns include Trump's mass deportation proposals, which have drawn criticism even from Republicans like Rep. María Elvira Salazar, whose family fled Cuba. The progressive stance of the Democratic Senate nominee, state Rep. Angie Nixon, is also seen by some Republicans as a potential liability for Democrats in South Florida.