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GOP candidates divided on Trump's campaign involvement

Created at 4 Sep · 8:51 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Republican lawmakers and candidates are struggling to balance the need for President Donald Trump's support with concerns about his unpopularity. Some are privately telling Trump's team they do not want him to campaign in their districts, while others fear alienating his base.

Key Numbers

$400 millionTrump's super PAC warchest
two dozenGOP lawmakers, candidates, and operatives interviewed
13 percentage pointsTrump's margin in Rep. Luna's district in 2024
14 pointsTrump's margin in Alaska and Texas in 2024
nearly nine pointsTrump's margin in Rep. Bresnahan's district in 2024
threeRepublicans representing districts won by Kamala Harris in 2024
15 to 20 percentpotential loss of key Republican voters if members distance from Trump

Who's Involved

Donald Trump
President seeking to campaign heavily in midterm elections
Rob Wittman
Republican Representative giving an indirect answer on Trump's campaign involvement
Anna Paulina Luna
Republican Representative who spoke with Trump at a White House dinner
Dan Sullivan
Senator in Alaska expecting Trump's campaign support
Ken Paxton
Texas official expecting Trump's campaign support
Olivia Wales
White House spokesperson touting Trump's record
Rob Bresnahan
Republican Representative in Pennsylvania welcoming Trump's campaign involvement
Mike Lawler
Republican Representative highlighting bipartisanship despite Trump's presence
Tom Barrett
Republican Representative not attending a convention with Trump
Natalie Baldassarre
RNC national press secretary on Trump's turnout impact
Richard Hudson
NRCC Chair downplaying concerns about Trump's campaign involvement

↳ Why This Matters

The Republican Party faces a strategic challenge in leveraging President Trump's influence for the midterm elections without alienating key voter demographics or being dragged down by his unpopularity, potentially impacting their ability to maintain congressional majorities.

Key facts

  • Many Republican candidates are hesitant to campaign closely with President Donald Trump due to his approval ratings.
  • Some GOP lawmakers have explicitly told Trump's team they do not want him campaigning in their districts.
  • Pollsters advise vulnerable Republicans to limit direct references to Trump on the campaign trail.
  • Trump plans to be heavily involved in the final 30 days of the midterm campaign.
  • The Republican National Committee emphasizes Trump's importance for voter turnout.

Republicans are grappling with how to manage President Donald Trump's involvement in their midterm election campaigns, with many candidates expressing wariness about being too closely associated with him due to his approval ratings.

Interviews with over two dozen GOP lawmakers, candidates, and operatives reveal a party divided on the issue. While Trump is eager to campaign and his super PAC has significant funds, many candidates in competitive districts fear being dragged down by his unpopularity. Some have privately communicated to Trump's team that they do not want him to visit their districts, with one senior Republican stating Trump would not be helpful and would require their approval.

Top GOP pollsters have advised vulnerable incumbents to limit their public references to Trump. However, the risk of alienating Trump's base and the president himself, who has a history of retaliating against party members who break with him, creates an uncomfortable dilemma. The Republican National Committee emphasizes Trump's role as a key motivator for low-propensity voters, warning that distancing from him could hurt turnout.

Trump himself has indicated he will be heavily involved in the final 30 days of the campaign, mentioning planned visits to states like Alaska and Texas. Some Republicans suggest strategically using Trump's brand for targeted outreach rather than in-person rallies in districts where he might be a liability. A White House spokesperson defended Trump's record on economic and security issues.

While some incumbent members, like Rep. Rob Bresnahan, welcome Trump's campaign presence, others, like Rep. Mike Lawler, focus on highlighting their bipartisanship. Rep. Tom Barrett plans to skip a convention where Trump will be present, though he did attend a White House dinner. The National Republican Congressional Committee has rebranded its candidate recruitment list to 'MAGA Majority,' requiring Trump's endorsement, and its chair maintains Trump is a 'net positive' in all districts based on polling.

Frequently asked questions

They are concerned that Trump's approval rating is too low and that associating too closely with him could hurt their chances in tough races.

They risk alienating Trump's base if they distance themselves from him, but could also be dragged down by his unpopularity if they embrace him too closely.

Trump's super PAC has more than $400 million available to deploy for campaign efforts.

The RNC views Trump as a crucial turnout motivator for certain Republican voters and warns against distancing from him.

What Happens Next

01Trump is expected to be heavily involved in campaigning in the final 30 days before the midterm elections.
02Republican candidates will continue to navigate their relationship with Trump as the election approaches.

How It Developed

Many Republicans facing tough elections are wary of closely aligning with President Donald Trump due to his approval rating.
Some battleground Republicans have informed Trump's team they do not want him campaigning in their districts.
Top GOP pollsters have advised vulnerable incumbents to limit direct references to Trump on the campaign trail.
A senior Republican stated that Trump would not be helpful in their competitive House district and would require their approval to campaign there.
Trump indicated at a White House dinner that he plans to be heavily involved in the final 30 days of the midterm push.
Republicans are concerned about alienating Trump's base if they distance themselves from him, while also fearing being dragged down by his unpopularity.
Some Republicans are eager for Trump's campaign to deploy its significant war chest to help preserve congressional majorities.
Trump mentioned planned visits to typically safe red states like Alaska and Texas for campaign events.

Sources

T1
‘We’ve told them he cannot come’: Republicans grapple with how to handle Trump on the trailPolitico

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