Key facts
- The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party won a historic state election in Saxony-Anhalt with 44% of the vote.
- The election saw a significant increase in voter turnout, suggesting heightened engagement.
- AfD's success is linked to voter dissatisfaction with the economy and immigration policies.
- The party's lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has been a prominent figure in capitalizing on voter discontent.
- The outcome raises questions about the efficacy of mainstream parties' 'firewall' strategy against the far-right.
- Potential coalition talks involve the AfD and the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht party.
Germany's far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has achieved a historic state election victory in Saxony-Anhalt, securing 44% of the vote and sending shockwaves across the country and Europe. The result, which occurred in the early hours of Monday, has been described as a "very grave moment for Europe" by France's European affairs minister, Benjamin Haddad.
While Saxony-Anhalt, a state in former communist East Germany, has traditionally leaned right, the AfD's success marks the first time a far-right party has come close to power at a regional level since the Nazi era. This comes despite years of efforts by mainstream parties to isolate the AfD. The election saw a significant surge in turnout to 77.8%, up from 60.3% in 2021, indicating a successful mobilization of voters by the AfD.
Detailed analysis suggests that while a portion of AfD supporters align with its extremist ideology, the party's growing popularity is also driven by a diverse group of voters alienated from mainstream politics. Factors contributing to this include discontent over the faltering economy and migration, with research linking rent increases to support for the AfD. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt and a former perfume salesman, has effectively used social media, particularly TikTok, to capitalize on voter discontent and a sense of 'ostalgie' (nostalgia for communist East Germany) among poorer eastern Germans who feel like second-class citizens.
The election outcome has ignited a debate about the effectiveness of the established consensus among mainstream parties to not cooperate with the AfD, known as the "Brandmauer" or firewall. Critics argue that this strategy has prevented the AfD from facing the scrutiny that comes with holding office and has potentially neutered the political mainstream by forcing unnatural coalitions and ineffective governance. Jon Henley, The Guardian's Europe correspondent, suggests that this has further fueled support for extremist parties.
Complex coalition talks are now anticipated in Saxony-Anhalt. Siegmund has rejected leading a minority administration, and initial indications point towards a potential coalition with the hard-left, pro-Russian Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht party, which garnered 5.3% of the vote. If Siegmund becomes the state's first far-right governor, he would wield significant influence over policy areas such as education, policing, and public broadcasting. The AfD has already proposed curriculum revisions and defunding anti-racism initiatives. Furthermore, governing in Saxony-Anhalt would grant the AfD seats in the Bundesrat upper house, allowing it to act as a disruptive force even without blocking legislation. With the AfD currently leading in national polls, this result is expected to have a ripple effect across Germany, potentially complicating coalition-building options in future elections.