Key facts
- The upcoming Saxony-Anhalt state election in Germany, where the far-right AfD is leading in polls, is creating urgency for an EU budget deal.
- EU governments are under pressure to agree on the bloc's next seven-year budget before the end of the year due to upcoming elections in several key member states.
- France is pushing for new EU-wide taxes, known as 'own resources,' to fund priorities without increasing national contributions.
- Germany is leading a bloc of wealthier countries seeking to reduce the seven-year spending plan, while net recipients want to maintain its size.
- EU leaders are set to discuss the budget at a summit on October 15, with further meetings planned in November and December.
The looming possibility of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing a significant victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election is amplifying the urgency for EU governments to reach an agreement on the bloc's next seven-year budget. European diplomats are increasingly concerned that upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in major member states like France, Spain, Italy, and Poland in 2027 could empower Euroskeptic voices, making budget negotiations more challenging and potentially leading to a less powerful and less expensive EU.
Negotiations on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), the EU's long-term spending plan, have been stalled for months due to fundamental disagreements between member states. A group of wealthier nations, led by Germany, advocates for substantial cuts to the proposed budget, while net recipient countries such as Romania and Poland are pushing to maintain its current size. Meanwhile, frontline states are seeking increased funding to address security threats from Russia.
France, in particular, faces domestic pressure from far-right parties, including a pledge from Marine Le Pen to significantly reduce Paris's contribution to the EU budget. President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly pushing for new EU-wide taxes, termed 'own resources,' to fund the bloc's priorities, such as levies on U.S. digital giants, foreign polluters, and online gambling, as a condition for French agreement.
EU Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin has warned that key priorities like competitiveness, defense, and security could be the first casualties of budget cuts. European Council President António Costa is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to bridge the divides between member states. The budget is slated for discussion at an EU leaders' summit on October 15, with further high-level meetings planned for November and a critical final summit in December, where leaders are expected to be pressed to finalize a deal.