Key facts
- Former Senator Blanche Lincoln now lobbies for Kalshi, a prediction market firm.
- Lincoln previously expressed concerns about prediction markets being used for sports gambling.
- She was a key author of Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act, which gave the CFTC regulatory authority over swaps.
- Kalshi has paid Lincoln's firm $480,000 since 2024 for lobbying efforts.
- Kalshi began offering sports bets in January 2025.
- Lawsuits in about 20 states are challenging the regulation of prediction market bets.
Former US Senator Blanche Lincoln, who in 2010 expressed concerns about prediction markets being used for gambling and played a role in regulating them through the Dodd-Frank Act, is now a lobbyist for Kalshi, a prediction market firm. Since 2024, Kalshi has paid Lincoln's firm $480,000 to lobby Congress and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to allow sports gambling on prediction markets.
During Senate proceedings in July 2010, Lincoln warned that prediction markets could evade gambling laws by offering "event contracts" on sports games, stating such contracts would serve no real commercial purpose and be used solely for gambling. As chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee and a primary author of Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act, she helped give the CFTC regulatory authority over swaps, with the law broadly defining "public interest" to allow the banning of sports bets.
However, the Trump administration used the authority granted by Dodd-Frank to permit sports-event contracts, leading to legal challenges from state governments. Lawsuits in approximately 20 states are currently before courts, questioning whether state governments can restrict these bets or if the CFTC's authority preempts state gambling laws. The outcome may be decided by the Supreme Court.
Lincoln's past comments are still cited in legal arguments supporting strict rules against sports betting on prediction markets. While initially, in August 2024, she wrote to the Biden CFTC suggesting sports results lacked significant economic consequences for event contracts, her views shifted after Kalshi began offering sports bets in January 2025. She then told the CFTC it should allow such contracts, aligning with the Trump CFTC's stance. Both Kalshi and its rival Polymarket have Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor.