Key facts
- The EIA projected US power demand of 4,306 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,370 billion kWh in 2027, up from a record 4,216 billion kWh in 2025.
- The EIA projected 2026 power sales of 1,546 billion kWh residential, 1,557 billion kWh commercial and 1,061 billion kWh industrial.
- Coal's share of US generation was projected to fall from 17% in 2025 to 15% in 2026 and 2027, the EIA said.
- Natural gas was projected to hold a 40% generation share in 2026 and ease to 39% in 2027, the EIA said.
- Renewables were projected to rise from about 24% of generation in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, the EIA said.
- The EIA projected gas sales to power generation rising to 37.4 bcfd in 2026 from a 2024 high of 36.8 bcfd.
US electricity consumption is projected to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, the US Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook published on November 10, 2026. The EIA projected demand rising from a record 4,216 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,306 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,370 billion kWh in 2027. If correct, 2026 would be the third consecutive year of record demand.
The EIA attributed the increase largely to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence, with homes and businesses also relying more on electricity and less on fossil fuels for heat and transportation. It projected 2026 power sales of 1,546 billion kWh to residential consumers, 1,557 billion kWh to commercial customers and 1,061 billion kWh to industrial customers. The all-time highs stand at 1,519 billion kWh residential and 1,503 billion kWh commercial in 2025, and 1,064 billion kWh industrial in 2000.
On generation mix, the EIA projected coal's share sliding from 17% in 2025 to 15% in 2026 and 2027, natural gas holding at 40% in 2026 before easing to 39% in 2027, renewables rising from around 24% in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, and nuclear holding at 18% across 2025 to 2027.
The outlook projected 2026 natural gas sales of 12.2 billion cubic feet per day to residential consumers and 9.4 bcfd to commercial customers, rising to 23.8 bcfd for industrial customers and 37.4 bcfd for power generation. Those compare with all-time highs of 14.3 bcfd residential in 1996, 9.9 bcfd commercial in 2025, 23.8 bcfd industrial in 1973 and 36.8 bcfd for power generation in 2024.