Key facts
- Coinbase (COIN) stock fell nearly 2% to $164.69.
- Robinhood (HOOD) stock price dropped over 3% to $90.13.
- MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock showed minimal gains, trading near flat at $96.23.
- JPMorgan analysts predict the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged but with a hawkish tone.
- There is a roughly one-in-three probability of a surprise interest rate increase by the Fed, according to Goldman Sachs.
- The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 66.3% probability of rates being held steady and a 33.7% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
Crypto-related stocks, including Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and MicroStrategy (MSTR), are facing investor scrutiny and potential volatility ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Coinbase and Robinhood have seen their stock prices decline, while MicroStrategy has remained relatively stable.
Analysts anticipate the Federal Reserve will likely maintain current interest rates but may adopt a hawkish stance, suggesting a possibility of future tightening. JPMorgan expects a 'hawkish hold' as the base case, which could lead to modest declines or little change in the S&P 500. Conversely, a more dovish tone might boost equities, while an unexpected 25-basis-point rate hike could trigger a significant sell-off, particularly affecting technology and crypto stocks.
Goldman Sachs has pointed to unusual uncertainty surrounding the meeting, with interest-rate futures indicating a one-in-three chance of a surprise rate increase. Such a move could further strengthen the US dollar and negatively impact sentiment in both the crypto and stock markets. Robinhood is also set to release its second-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings after the market closes.
The CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 66.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, with a 33.7% chance of a rate hike. Beyond the decision itself, market participants will closely scrutinize the Fed's commentary for insights into future monetary policy, as policymakers reportedly remain divided on inflation risks.