Key facts
- Brexit and the first Covid-19 lockdown caused the most damage to UK mental health.
- The Brexit referendum led to an estimated 120,000 more people seeking GP help for depression.
- The first Covid-19 lockdown was linked to approximately 900,000 more people visiting a doctor for depression symptoms.
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Liz Truss's mini-budget also triggered increases in psychological distress.
- Mental ill-health has been increasing in the UK since 2009, accelerating from 2015.
- The heightened distress has persisted since 2016 and has not returned to pre-2016 levels.
A decade of significant global and national events, including Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Liz Truss's mini-budget, have contributed to a serious and lasting decline in the mental health of the UK population, according to research published in the journal BMJ Mental Health. The study, led by researchers at University College London (UCL), analyzed data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, encompassing 87,857 individuals aged 16 and older from 2009 to 2024.
The findings indicate that these "systemic shocks" triggered substantial increases in psychological distress, measured by depression and anxiety symptoms. While all five events caused immediate damage to mental wellbeing, the Brexit referendum in June 2016 and the first Covid-19 lockdown in March 2020 had the most profound negative impacts.
The research team estimated that the UK's vote to leave the European Union led to an increase in overall mental ill-health equivalent to about 120,000 more people seeking GP assistance for depression. The first Covid lockdown, however, had a significantly larger effect, with a jump in the UK's General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) score equating to approximately 900,000 more people visiting a family doctor due to depression symptoms.
Subsequent events also contributed to rising distress. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was associated with about 15,000 additional monthly GP visits for depression, while Liz Truss's mini-budget in September 2022, which proved economically disruptive, was linked to about 23,000 more monthly visits for depression.
Researchers observed increased psychological distress immediately following the Brexit referendum and the first Covid-19 lockdown, with more gradual monthly increases after the invasion of Ukraine and the 2022 mini-budget. Crucially, the heightened distress has persisted since 2016 and has not reverted to the lower levels seen before that year.
This rise in demand for mental health support has strained NHS services. The total number of people in England in contact with NHS mental health services nearly doubled from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25. Monthly new referrals for mental ill-health have also surged, from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026, a 47% increase.
Andy Bell, chief executive of the Centre for Mental Health thinktank, noted that while Covid-19 clearly impacted mental health, other shocks likely contributed by reducing feelings of security and connection, exacerbated by the cost of living crisis. He emphasized that the rising distress is a cumulative effect, made worse by years of austerity that reduced societal buffers against such shocks. Mental ill-health costs the UK an estimated £300 billion annually.