Key facts
- Canadians are traveling to the US less due to trade tensions and tariffs.
- The US has imposed significant tariffs on Canadian goods, with threats of further measures.
- Canada has pledged to retaliate with matching tariffs.
- Tourism Economics estimates a projected loss in Canadian visitor spending per state resident.
- Fifteen states and Washington D.C. are identified as most dependent on Canadian tourism.
Canadians are significantly reducing their travel to the United States, a trend attributed to escalating trade tensions and tariffs under President Donald Trump's administration. Since Trump's return to office in 2025, policies focusing on aggressive trade practices and substantial tariffs on Canadian goods have created friction between the two nations. The US administration recently imposed 50% tariffs on various Canadian items, including alcohol and hockey equipment, as retaliation for what it deems unfair trade practices by Canada. This move was met with a promise from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to match the US tariffs "dollar-for-dollar."
These trade disputes are having a tangible economic impact on US states that rely heavily on Canadian tourism and visitor spending. Data from Statistics Canada indicates that while visitor numbers have seen some rebound, they remain below 2024 levels. To quantify the potential economic fallout, Tourism Economics estimated the projected decline in Canadian visitor spending for each state in 2025 compared to the previous year. By dividing this projected loss by the state's resident population, the analysis identified 15 states and Washington D.C. as being particularly vulnerable due to their strong dependence on Canadian travelers. These locations are expected to experience losses in visitor spending per resident that exceed the national average of $11.