Key facts
- Brent futures were up $1.53, or 1.6%, at $96.15 a barrel as of 1030 GMT, while WTI rose 52 cents to $88.64.
- UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the Middle East situation is unresolved, explaining a modest recovery in prices.
- Eurasia Group cut its probability of a US-Iran deal to 10% from 20% and raised a continued standoff to 30%.
- Eurasia Group said escalation could push Brent into a $110 to $125 a barrel band.
- Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
- JPMorgan said the oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October.
Brent crude futures rose $1.53, or 1.6%, to $96.15 a barrel as of 1030 GMT on Thursday, November 5, 2026, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 52 cents, or 0.6%, to $88.64, according to Reuters. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 8% in the previous session, settling at their lowest since August 31.
Investors were weighing the future course of the US-Israeli war with Iran after President Donald Trump's Republican Party suffered heavy losses in midterm elections on Tuesday. The conflict, which Trump launched alongside Israel in February, and the resulting higher fuel prices for US consumers were major grievances for voters, Reuters reported.
"The situation in the Middle East is still unresolved and that's why there is some modest recovery in prices at the moment," UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Brent is more affected by geopolitical factors while WTI is a domestic US benchmark, Staunovo said.
June Goh, senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, said markets are assessing the impact of the midterms on Trump's next steps with the Iran war and pricing in more likelihood for the war to end. She said more volatility lies ahead because the path to full diplomacy is uncertain and global strategic reserves have drawn thin.
Citi said in a note that with the midterms over, the White House could focus on executive powers in foreign policy and potentially escalate conflict with Iran. Eurasia Group lowered its estimate for the chance of renewed US strikes on Iran to 60% from 65%, cut the probability of a deal to 10% from 20%, and raised the likelihood of a continued standoff to 30% from 15%. It said escalation could push Brent into a $110 to $125 a barrel band.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents after attempting to use unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude shipments through the waterway have recovered to close to pre-war levels, according to analysts, though at a higher cost.
JPMorgan said in a note on Wednesday that the resumption of Gulf supply pushed the global oil market back into surplus, estimating 1.1 million barrels per day in September widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, against last year's average of 1.3 million bpd. The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that US crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all fell last week as demand hit its highest in a year.